Breaking down the rest of Stanford's schedule

But the real goal this year is SomeBowl or Bust! And, at 5-3, we’re just one win away from enjoying the charms of the Poinsetta Bowl in San Diego. However, we’ve obviously got an intimidating schedule coming up: vs. Oregon, @USC, vs. Cal, vs. Notre Dame. We will probably be underdogs in each of these games—though we have a puncher’s chance in all of them—so let’s break down each of these games for the possibility of the upset.

vs. Oregon
Pros for upset: It’s off a bye week, so we will be rested and presumably with tons of tricks and traps ready—it’s what Bill Simmons memorably called a “Kitchen Sink Game,” a game where you throw everything and the kitchen sink at the problem. Meanwhile, regardless of the result, Oregon will be coming off of a Kitchen Sink game of its own, against USC. And, perhaps most interestingly (though not at the time) Oregon only barely beat us last year, winning on a last-chance drive. That was at Oregon, so the shift to Stanford is definitely worth something. Then you ask yourself, which team has improved the most over the last year? Oregon’s good, maybe the best in the Pac-10…but Andrew Luck’s inclusion moves the offense from “mediocre” to “potential juggernaut.” (By the way, Toby, coming back for 2010 means the offense becomes “awesome juggernaut.” You’ll own every relevant Stanford rushing record. Just think about it.)

Cons for upset: They have a good offense with a lot of speed and we’ve seen that movie before. Also a good defense. Also good special teams. They’re probably the best in the Pac-10.

Odds of upset, pulled out of ass: 30%

@ USC
Pros for upset: It’s USC.

Cons for upset: It’s USC.

Odds of upset, pulled out of ass:: 10%, if that.

vs. Cal
Pros for upset: You have to begin with Kevin Riley, shaky quarterback. Also, Cal’s wideouts suck. So the Cal passing game ain’t all that and a bag of chips. Plus that, Cal’s defense? Secretly very bad. They’ve given up 400 yards in four straight games. The first two games of this streak—Oregon and USC—were bad, but understandable. The third, UCLA, was odd but not totally out of the realm of the unreasonable. The last, against Wazzou (in Berkeley!), is simply unacceptable. A true freshman playing for Wazzou threw for 354 yards! That’s terrible!

Cons for upset: Jahvid Best speed to edge oh god.

Odds of upset, pulled out of ass:: 45%

vs. Notre Dame
Pros for upset: Their defense sucks and they’re traveling cross-country.

Cons for upset: Jimmy Clausen is overrated, but you don’t need to be that good to rip up Stanford’s defense.

Odds of upset, pulled out of ass: 40%

Now, for those keeping score at home, that means Stanford is cumulatively favored to win and go bowling for the first time since 2001. Let’s go upset someone.