The WSJ has a useful piece up right now revealing that the real threat behind all of this Middle East unrest is: Iran. And not only is the real threat Iran, but the government’s entire policy was shaped to stop Iran from doing Iranian things.
The worry, I suppose, is that Shi’a will take over governments in the Middle East, and will therefore be predisposed towards the Iranian point of view. I don’t think the view does as much work as the sources behind the article want it to do: Shi’a are not monolithic; Iranian influence in Iraq, for example, has not exactly been comprehensive and will probably continue that way even in the absence of the U.S. (Ayatollah al-Sistani, for example, is not particularly aligned with the Iranian government); and, of course, the revolutions have been mostly secular in character. The revolutions might make the Iranian government relatively stronger vis-à-vis its Middle Eastern rivals, but it seems unlikely that they would gain strength absolutely.
If I might be cynical: this strikes me as an attempt to plant the idea that there are important, wider strategic interests at play in the Libya intervention—namely, the continued encirclement of Iran.
Monday, March 21, 2011
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